Static and dynamic models. Spacious and dynamic models

A dynamic object is a physical body, a technical attachment, or a process that can enter, points of possible stagnation of positive inflows, which can take inflows, and exits, points, values ​​of physical quantities that characterize the object’s state. The object of the building reacts to the changes of its internal state and external values, which characterize the state of the city. Having poured into the object, that її reaction in the mood changes with the hour, the stench is observed, tobto. can use wimiryans with similar accessories. The object has an internal structure that is composed of dynamic elements that interact.

If you want to read and think about it in a better way, you can say that the dynamic object looks like a “clean” one, it’s not true: to describe the object, the model is guilty of revenge 4

The middle and the mechanism of supply to the new cycle of injections

The object is to blame for the mother's length in the open spaces

Function at the hour

The model may have buti vimіryuvalnі outbuildings.

Injection to the object can be a physical quantity: force, temperature, pressure, electric voltage and other physical quantities, or a combination of decal quantities, and the reaction, the response of the object to the inflow, can be blown in space, for example, zsuv or swidkist, change of temperature, or struma and in.

For linear models of dynamic objects, the fair principle of superposition (superposition), that is. the reaction to the contraction of the pleural effusion in the total amount of skin reactions, and the large-scale change in the pleural effusion is proportional to the change in the reaction of the new one. One day can be added to a number of objects or a number of elements of an object.

Understanding the dynamic object of revenge and showing a causal and inherited connection between the influx of a new and yogo reaction. For example, between the force applied to a massive body, and the same position and the hand, between the electric tension, applied to the element, and the strum, which flows into the new.

In a wild type, dynamic objects are non-linear, in addition, stinks can be volody and discrete, for example, quickly change the structure at the reach of a real equal. Ale, sound for most of the hour the functioning of dynamic objects without interruption at the hour and for small signals of the stink of the line. To that, the main respect will be given to the linear, uninterrupted, dynamic objects themselves.

An example of non-permanence: a car that collapses along the road - functions without interruption at the hour of the object, and its camp is to lie down at the hour without interruption. For a certain hour, the car can be seen as a linear object, an object that functions in a linear mode. And only in case of accidents, shutdowns, if, for example, the car crashes, a description of this non-linear object is needed.

The linearity and non-permanence of the time of the object's magnitude is simply a simple, private, but important vipadok, which allows you to simply look at the magnitude of the power of the dynamic object.

On the other hand, as the object is characterized by processes, like at different scales of the hour, it is often possible to replace these processes with a discrete change at the hour.

The manual of the robot is dedicated to us in front of the linear models of dynamic objects with deterministic inflows. Smooth determinants of a fairly good mind can be generated by a way of a discrete, randomly distributed additive injection on younger, slower dosing delta functions. Such models are possible with relatively small injections for a wide class of real objects. For example, the signals of carving in computer games are formed in such a way that they imitate caring by a car or by a keyboard. Vipadkovі dії are still lingering beyond the scope of the view.

The efficiency of a linear model of a dynamic object is determined, but we need to make sure that this output value is smooth, tobto. chi є won і kіlka її young pokhіdnyh for an hour without interruption. On the right, in the fact that the external values ​​of real objects change smoothly by the hour. For example, it is not possible to simply move from one point to the other. More than that, vin, as if it were a massive body, you can’t change your swedishness with a hairbrush, for that you would need an inexhaustible tightness. But as soon as possible, the car can be replaced by a streak.

The concept of a dynamic object does not universally define a physical object. For example, the description of the car, as a dynamic object, allows you to get food, as if it’s fast and fluttering, as it smoothly collapses along the uneven road, and as a bush, as if it were water, the passengers of the car in Russia are expensive, they climb the mountain .d. n. Ale in such a model can be used, such a color is in a car, its price is not important, and the stink leaves do not pour into the car’s opening. The model is guilty of introspection of the head with a glance of some criterion, or of the totality of criteria in the authority of the object that is being modeled, and of not being aggravated by other rows of authority. Otherwise, it will be transcendentally foldable, in order to complicate the analysis of authorities, in order to chirp the elder.

On the other hand, as a consequence of the change itself in the hour of the color of the car, which is influenced by various factors, for example, the sleepy light or the old ones, then for this occasion it can be stored and changed in the case of a different differential alignment.

Real objects, like that yoga element, like you can see like dynamic objects, like you can take some kind of dzherel infusion, and you yourself can inject that dzherelo, resist yoma. The external value of the object of control in rich situations is the input for another, offensive dynamic object, as well, in its own line, it can be added to the mode of operation of the object. Incl. links of a dynamic object from the ranks, by extension to the new light, double-straightening.

Often, when the richness of the task is observed, the behavior of a dynamic object is seen only in the hour, but its characteristics are wide, in the fluctuations, so that the stench does not chirp the last one without looking, it is not looked at, it does not falter, for the sake of the forgiven appearance of the blockage, the signal can be fooled At times, I’m widening the splash at the expanse of view of the dzherel to the primach.

Dynamic objects are described by differential equations (a system of differential equations). It is rich in practical ways in the entirety of the whole, especially the differential equalization (ODE) of the ODE system. RIZNOMANTITY VIMISIS OF DINMICHTICH VALKOSKUS Significance of differential RIVNYAN YAK UNIVIVER Mathematical Apara, Permanent to conduct a theoretical doslizni (analiz) navkolishny svіtu, for prinaimnі on the scale of macrosvіtu (not micro-and not mega-).

The model of a dynamic object is possible, but it is not adequate, it corresponds to a real dynamic object. Tsya vіdpovіdnіst is surrounded by a space-hour area and a range of vplivіv.

The model of a dynamic object is implemented, so that it is possible to induce a real object, the behavior of some kind of inflow inflow in the sing space-hour area and with a certain class and range of inflow inflow in the behavior of the model.

The breadth of classes, the difference in the structures of dynamic objects, can be evocative, so that all the stinks at once can create an indistinguishable set of powers. Prote the test of understanding and understanding of authority, and the principles of the work of dynamic objects, for all of them, it is not so hopeless.

On the right, in the fact that even dynamic objects are adequately described by differential equals, and in this case, the sequence of authorities, which characterizes a dynamic object, be of any kind, is characterized by a combination of authorities, which characterizes this differential equal. It is possible to establish that for linear objects of such basic powers it is necessary to obtain a small number of borders and evenly, and to that there are a small number of borders and a set of basic powers of dynamic objects. Spiraling on the power of power and combining the elements that lead them, you can induce dynamic objects with the most manipulative characteristics.

Otzhe, the main power of dynamic objects is theoretically derived from their differential equivalence and spivvennesen with the behavior of real objects.

Dynamic object - the object that catches the oval infusions that change in the hour, and reacts to them with a change in magnitude. The object has an internal structure that is composed of dynamic elements that interact. The hierarchy of objects is surrounded from below by the simplest models, which are based on their power.

Influx on the object, like that її reaction, є physical, vimiryuvanі values, ce can be and the totality of physical quantities, is mathematically described by vectors.

When describing dynamic objects for additional differential equalities, it is implicitly conveyed that the skin element of a dynamic object takes and stains energy levels (such tightness), how much energy is required for normal operation, the robots are in a similar way, they are effective. Part of the energy object can be deducted from the input input and can be described explicitly by differential equals, another part can be found by third-party sources and not by differential equals. Such a mindset significantly simplifies the analysis of the model, not supporting the dominance of the elements and the entire object. If necessary, the process of exchanging energy from the primordial medium can be reported in explicit form, and there will also be differential and algebraic alignment.

At the same time, all the energy (sweatiness) for the output signal of the object is inflow: it is important, the release of a massive body by force, the electric lance and others are passive.

At the top of the line, you can see it as a flow of energy to remove the necessary tightness of the output signal: a subsidy of a sinusoidal signal, just an ideal subsidio of that in.

Dynamic objects, like that yoga element, like it is also possible like dynamic objects, like you can take it in the form of yoga dzherel, and you yourself can inject it

There is a model, how it appears that it is between itself two; The model tsya maє bagatovіkovu іstorіyu and spiraetsya on deep and practical information that is transmitted without intermediary from the Teacher to the Uchnya. On the mov Traditions, representatives of which are the authors of this book, this model is called Volume - Prostorova Model, (as it was repeatedly guessed already in the first divisions). These ancient parallels are broadly - Spacious Models are based on other ancient descriptions of people (the system of Chakras - “thin” bodies; “energy centers” - “plans of information” and others.). It’s a pity, we’ve seriously studied these models at once, in more vipadkiv, we’ve expanded the vulgar statements about the Chakra, like about the spaciousness of the space-localization of the adoption, but about the “thin” bodies, like about our own “matryoshka”, which is made up of some invisible the eye of essences. The authors seem to have only a small number of recent, well-done meals [div., for example, Yoga No. 20 "Nutrition of the Central Theory of the Chakras" St. Petersburg 1994.]

The situation that has evolved is utterly imperceptible: it is critically thought that fahivts have been adjusted to the model of Chakras and "thin" bodies skeptically, otherwise (even though it is unimportant to call on the trivalium of the knowledge of a robot and a psychologist or a psychotherapist) stand in one row with the house-givers (not in the image it is said), sho vodvіduyut course "psychic", and popovnyuyut army of legends about the Chakra and the "Body", shcho rozpovsyudzhuyutsya popular brochures. “esoterics”, after all, the authoritative leading one gave approximately the following instruction to one right: “... And now, with your ethereal hand, place the“ yakir ”directly to the client in the lower Chakra ...”, which most of those present with enthusiasm tried to create ( obviously, not given, lower at your own sight).

We were not far away from Chakri and Tila, but rather from my Ob'ymiv and Prostoriv. Not a trace, however, to carry out an unambiguous distinction between Obsyagami and Chakras, Expanses and Tilas; no matter how similar it is to the act, these models are resurrected; Vidminnosti, in my hand, is due not to pretensions to more or less correctness, but to success for this Practice, as we imagine on the sides of the book.

Let's turn again to the appointment of Ob'єmіv and Prostorіv, as they gave us at the branches 1 and 2:

Otzhe, Obsyagi - ce parts of the physical body and deacons of localization of the region. Leather obsyag - a whole psychophysical camp, enlightenment, which reflects the deac (congruent) consistency of the singing qualities of the body, like a whole. If you speak with energetic language, then Volume is a singing range of energy, which, when focused on the physical world, manifests itself in every tissue, organ, and tissue of the nervous system. For the simplest version, it is possible to know the most characteristic function and function of the skin, as it works in the body. . So, the functions of the Coccygeal Volume can be shown from the tasks of life in all forms (physical, social, spiritual), manifest, people, becoming ... structure, management and communication. And so far. We will be for the time being no specific functions obsyagiv. and the main mechanisms work with them.

Skin experience, be it any kind of agreement, it’s important for us to take it through the next one. It’s worth trying to get some kind of information - if we want to activate those chi and other experiences, then we’ll wake up that chi and another Obyagi and we start to receive the Light “through a new one”. It’s a hundred times a psychotherapeutic work - if the therapist turns to some kind of experience of a client: “problematic” or “resourceful”, he tries to practice as a “partial specialty”, wines, by the same token, focusing on the patient’s knowledge in this area of ​​that and another obligation. to the point, we briefly guessed the functions of more than three lower obligations to the fact that it is really more productive to focus the respect at the upper obligations - the phenomenon is not transverse - everything is not so simple here, as described in books). Those same can be seen up to the open spaces. Expanses - schemes of sprinyattya, which show equal "thin" sprinyattya. One and the same obsyag on different equals will manifest itself in its own way, saving its main task. So, for example, the Umbilical Obsyag in the expanse of podia manifests itself through a number of situations, in some people it appears out of the way, in order, manages thinly. modeling, putting in order thoughts and looking at the World, budova plans, etc., in the open space, the whole emotional spectrum will be pofarbovaniya vіdpovіdnimi up to the obligatory tasks.

Volumetric-spatial model of a human organism can be mentally presented at a glance of the scheme (Fig. 3.)

Fig.3. Volumetric-space model.

On the diagram (Small.3.) it is clearly seen that the skin of the Expanse covers the entire spectrum of energy on the equal "thin" level, while the skin of the Volume - the "sector", which shows the singing energy range.

Otzhe - Volume-Space Model allows in People in the World, as if they are accepted as dynamic energy structures, to see the different levels of energy. In sprynyatti tsі yakosti energії manifest through nevne podnannya nazhіrіznomanіtnіshі factors:

physiological processes (mechanical, thermal, chemical, electrodynamic), dynamics of nerve impulses, activation of quiet and other modalities, zabarvlennі emotsіy i slennya, poddnanny podіy, intertwined shares; fall into the minds of the “evil” minds: geographic, climatic, social, political, historical, cultural...

Energy flows.

Scheme, induced Fig.3. gives us an energy model of the human body. From the point of view of dawn, all the life of a person, as if having manifested, formed the energy of energy, or as the dynamics of self-acceptance, you can see in the sight of the rush-pulsation of a kind of “visor” on the diagram, and at the skin moment, those other areas of the energy spectrum are activated. .four.).

However, the dynamics of self-sustainability and the flow of energy are not the same and sufficient and different for a great person. Іsnuyut oblasts, in kakih spryyattya, so be moving, fixed and dosit stіyke, deyakі areas of the spectrum are available only a little bit and for a special zbіgu furnishing. Іsnuyu areas, practically inaccessible to usvіdomlennya protyazhnogo life (for skin people different: for one person is not accessible to the experience of the senses, and in all life so and did not survive in a right way, the third is not able to survive the same way, etc.).

The most movable trajectory of disruption and fixation of sprinyattya and recognition is designated as Dominant. Stan Zrozumilo, for that, the scho of vіdіrvati is the same in the same, the post -position of the positions of the senior, the sakas of the dodatkov і, the vmіnnya to send the rhinet at the depths, so it was not pushing

Fig.4. The dynamics of the breath at the hour.

Cim and explain the presence of importantly accessible and inaccessible to spriynyattya that apprehended ranges - call a person not maє tsієї dodatkovoї energії; only sometimes it can be caused by the presence of supernatural, mostly stressful, furnishings, which allow you to take refuge in the previously inaccessible range (such a rapid displacement can be caused before the appearance in a person of some new heights that are inaccessible to the greatest).

For a more detailed description of the situation, we will need to go back to understand Energy flow. Energopotik - Rukh, the development of a point impulse to sprinyattya in the Vast-Spacious energy system. You can say this: Energotik is a dynamic business of various regions in the Individual Sphere beyond the high energy range (for example, for one modality).

“Cheasing at the uninterrupted dialogue with the Light, the person (I.S.) may hear all the signals that there is a “calling” flow of Energy flows. Moreover, the sensitivity of I.S. Significantly higher beyond the threshold of organ response. Vidpovidno іsnuє impersonal unseen reactions.

Peculiarities of special deformation of I.S. create permanent characteristic individual energy flows. Those that we can see, as a matter of fact, emotions, thoughts, ruhi of the body and sluggishness of the share, memory, projections of the future, ailments, special culture and svetoglyad – all this (and much more) ruh Energopotokiv.”

You can mentally see constructive and destructive energy flows. Constructive E. - the dynamics of spriynyattya, which spriyaє usunennya deformations z І.S. - Zhorstkih, dominant structures. Destructive E. - the dynamics of spriynyattya, which spriyaє vyniknennya new or reinforcing obvious deformations I.S.

For my own part, the dynamics of Energostrums is called a multi-factorial dynamic process that transfers the adopted people from one state to another (an example of the dynamics of Energostrums images in Fig. 5.).

In a healthy organism, there may be energy flows, for such wines (organism) it is absolutely clear and penetrating. The dynamics of energy flows can, at times, translate into a new camp. (This is equivalent to what we called the skrіznіm uzvіdomlennyam v Rosdіlі 1).

The dynamics of Energostrums is a process of bugatofactory, because whether a camp is manifested in the sight of a great number of factors (for example, singing impressions, the nature of the ruhіv. Dynamics of Energostrums to transfer one station to another (to be more precise - the whole process - without interruption of the change of stations) and, apparently, can be changed as a factor and parameters, through which Energy flows are shown.

Fig.5. The butt of the dynamics of Energostrum, which translates the spryyattya zі will become with a zhorstko localized structure (A) in a larger Cіlіsne (D), in the midst of one space

If we turn now to psychotherapy, then we can see this:

The patient is rebuying at the singing station of the sprinyattya (to the yogo Dominant), as, arbitrarily, not entirely, at the yogo energy є zhorstko localization of the structure, which gives the ability to rush to spriyattya to other positions. To get out of such a situation, it is necessary to set Energy Flows that allow you to move to another country, which patient is more positive. Whom has psychotherapy, sound, end.

As if marveling at more high-profile positions, then it appears that a non-patient or a patient, who forks, behind the great rahunka, few people look at the "ailing". Vіdminnіst іlki іtlki scho "illness" priymaє svіy stan, like dyscomfortable, and "healthy" - like more - less comfortable and, perhaps, more steps of freedom. Prote, up to the integrity of the price there is no need for a good one, tk. and the camp of "ailing" and "healthy" tse, as a rule, all the same obmezhenі, localization and are set by the Dominant fixation of the spray.

Tsіlіsnіst transferring possibility independent the task of being such Energostrums is that experience for the World totally, at the same time by the whole organism.

Before the models of hourly rows, which characterize the fallowing of the effective change in the hour, one can see:

a) the model of the accumulation of the effective change in the form of a trend component or the model of the trend;

b) the model of the deposit to the result. changing seasonal component model of seasonality;

c) the model of the accumulation of the effective change as a trend and seasonal component or the model of the trend and seasonality.

As a matter of economic hardness, it is necessary to dynamically (to lie in the middle of the hour) interrelationships of inclusions in the model of changes, the values ​​of such changes are dated and called dynamic time series. Since the economic hardness reflects the static (which takes one period of an hour) the interplay of all inclusions in the model of change, then the meanings of such changes are usually called spacious tributes. І use in the future data is not available. The lags are called exogenous or endogenous changes in the economic models, which are dated by the forward moments of the hour and are compared with the current changes. Models that include changeable lags are considered to be a class of dynamic models. Enlightenment lags and current exogenous changes are called, as well as dens of endogenous changes

23. Trends and space-hours in the planned economy

Statistical warnings in social and economic studies should be carried out regularly through time intervals and are given at the time intervals xt, de t = 1, 2, ..., p. explicit statistical base, and then the main trends (trends) are extrapolated to tasks at an hourly interval.

Methodology of statistical forecasting transfers and tests various models for the skin hour series, matching them on the basis of statistical criteria and choosing the best of them for forecasting.

When modeling seasonal events, statistical studies distinguish between two types of coliving: multiplicative and additive. In a multiplicative trend, the range of seasonal fluctuations changes in hours in proportion to the trend and is reflected in the statistical model by a multiplier. With additive seasonality, it is transmitted that the amplitude of seasonal windfall is constant and does not fall in line with the trend, but the increase is represented in the model of additional stocks.

The basis of Bilshosti method is forecasted by Ekstrapolyasi, it is turned out to be searched by laws, Zv'yazkiv, the SPIVVIVENSHEN, ShOTA DOSLIZHUNEN PERIODI, Abo - at the Belsh of the Wide Rosa, past that day.

The most widely used trends and adaptive methods of forecasting. The middle of the rest can be seen like this, like the method of autoregression, the coursive average (Box - Jenkins and adaptive filtering), the method of exponential smoothing (Holt, Brown and the exponential average) and in.

To assess the accuracy of the estimated model, the prediction of vicariousness requires a small amount of statistical criteria.

When submitting the totality of the results, the watchfulness of the hourly rows is actually victorious about those that the magnitudes that are afraid of lie down to some extent, the parameters of such a change can be assessed. For these parameters (as a rule, for the average value and variance, although there may be different victories and a larger description), one of the models of the imaginative representation of the process can be generated. For the last moment, the model looks at the frequency distribution under the parameters pj of the outgoing frequency, which is used in the j-th interval. At any given time, the advance of the accepted hour does not change the subdivision, the decision is accepted on the basis of the actual empirical frequency subdivision.

When forecasting is carried out, it is necessary to take into account all the factors that affect the behavior of the system in the base (longest) and forecast periods, due to the inevitable or change according to the given law. The first type is realized in one-factor forecasting, the other - in multiple-factor forecasting.

Bagatofaktornі dynamic models owing to vrakhovuvat expanse and temporal change of factors (arguments), as well as (for consumption) saturating the contribution of these factors to the fallow change (function). Bagatofactor forecasting allows you to protect the development of mutually dependent processes and phenomena. The basis of yoga is a systemic pidkhid until the emergence of a pre-existing phenomenon, and the process of comprehending the phenomenon, like in the past, and in the future.

In multifactorial forecasting, one of the main problems is the problem of the choice of factors that zoom in on the behavior of the system, as it can be done by a purely statistical way, only with the help of a deep understanding of the nature of the phenomenon. Here there is a hint of blaming on the primacy of analysis (comprehension) before the statistical (mathematical) methods of the appearance. In traditional methods (for example, in the method of least squares), it is important that one should be careful about one type of one (for one and the same argument). Really, the autocorrelation and її non-obliqueness lead to non-optimality of statistical estimates, complicating the confidence intervals for the regression coefficients, and navit reverification of their significance. Autocorrelation is assigned to changes in trends. Won may be the mother of the place, as if the sum of the sum factor is not insured, or the number of lesser factors, or the straight lines "in one block", or the model is incorrectly selected, as it establishes a link between the factors and that function. To reveal the obviousness of autocorrelation, the Durbin-Watson criterion is used. To turn off or change the autocorrelation, the transition to the trend component (turn off the trend) is stopped, or the hour is introduced equal to the multiplier regression as an argument.

In multicollinear models, there is a problem of multicollinearity - the presence of a strong correlation between factors, as it is possible to establish any fallacy between the factors. Having shown that these factors are multicollinear, it is possible to determine the nature of the interdependence between multicollinear elements of rich independent variables.

In multifactorial analysis, it is necessary to evaluate the parameters of the function in order to improve (dosledzhuvana) induce the prognosis of the skin factor (for other functions or models). Obviously, the values ​​of factors taken from the experiment in the base period do not change with similar values ​​found in predictive models for factors. Tsya vіdminnіst maє buti is explained either by vipadkovy vіdhilennyami, the value of which is shown by zaznachenim vіdmіnnosti and is guilty but it is insured at the same time when estimating the parameters of the function, which smooths out, and tsya vіdminnіst not vipadkovo and nіbity prognosis. Therefore, in the problem of rich factor forecasting, the values ​​of the factors, as well as the values ​​of the functions, which are smoothed, are to be blamed for the general pardons, the law of the distribution of which is to blame for the values ​​in the case of the variable analysis, which precedes the forecasting procedures.

24. Essence and meaning EM: structural and roaring

Econometric models are systems of mutual relations, rich in parameters that are determined by methods of statistical processing of data. Today, abroad, for analytical and forecast purposes, hundreds of econometric systems have been broken up and broken. Macroeconometric models, as a rule, are presented first in a natural, modified form, and then in an induced structural look. The natural form of econometric rivnyan allows you to qualify their zmistovu side, evaluate their economic sense.

In order to induce predictions of endogenous changes, it is necessary to develop flow endogenous changes models as explicit functions of the assigned changes. The rest of the specification, omitted by the path of the inclusion of the floods, was omitted as a result of the mathematical formalization of economic laws. This form of specification is called structural. In the general view, in the structural specificity, endogenous changes are not manifested in a clear view through zooming.

In the model of an equally important market, the change of proposition is only expressed in the same way through the zoomed change, for the representation of endogenous changes through the zoom, it is necessary to visualize the transformation of the structural form. Let's break down the system of equalities for the rest of the specifics of other endogenous changes.

In this way, the endogenous change in the model of the change is clearly visible through the zoom change. This form of specification took away the name pointed. In an okremu mode, the structural form is induced and the model can be expanded. With the correct specification of the model, the transition from the structural to the induced form is always possible, the turning transition is possible.

The system of sleepy, one-hour equalizations (or the structural form of the model) sings to avenge endogenous and exogenous changes. Endogenous changes in signs in induction earlier in the system of one-hour equalizations like in. These deposits are changed, the number of such valuable resources is equal to the system. Exogenous changes are designated as x. Tse zumovlenі zminnі, scho vplyvayut endogennі zminnі, but yakі lie in them.

The simplest structural form of the model can be seen:

de y - Endogenous changes; x – exogenous changes.

Classification of changes to endogenous and exogenous deposits according to the theoretical concept of the adopted model. Economic changes can be in some models as endogenous, and in others as exogenous changes. Pozaekonomіchnі zminnі (for example, climatic mind) enter the system as exogenous zminnі. As exogenous changes, the values ​​of endogenous changes for the forward period of the hour (lag changes) can be seen.

Thus, the slowdown of the flow rock (y t) can be deposited no less than low economic factors, and the second equal slowdown at the front turn (y t-1)

The structural form of the model allows you to add the change of whether exogenous change to the value of endogenous change. As much as exogenous changes, choose such changes, as they can be an object of regulation. Changing them and keruyuchi them, you can in advance mothers of the whole meaning of endogenous changes.

The structural form of the model in the right part is correct with endogenous and exogenous changing coefficients b i and a j (bi - coefficient with endogenous change, a j - coefficient with exogenous change), they are called structural coefficients of the model. All the changes in the model are in the differences in the vіdhіlennі vіd vіdnya, so that pіd x may be on vіdіvі x-(and ріd y - vіdpovіdno y-(. That's why the term in the skin rіvnyannі system vіdsutnіy).

The choice of OLS for estimating the structural coefficients of the model is given, as it is customary in theory, to change the structural coefficients of the model, the structural form of the model is transformed into the induced form of the model.

The form of the model was induced by the system of linear functions of endogenous substitutions of exogenous ones:

At a glance, the form of the model does not differ in any way from the system of independent equalities, the parameters of which are estimated by traditional OLS. Zastosovuyuchi MNC can estimate δ , and then evaluate the value of endogenous changes through exogenous.

Burnt EM(її blocks)

Appointment. Under the dynamic system, it is understood that the skin moment at the hour tT in one of the possible stations Z and the building will move in hours from one station to the next day for the most important and internal reasons.

A dynamic system is like a mathematical object to take revenge on its own description of such mechanisms:

• - a description of the change in the situation due to the influx of internal causes (without the introduction of a dovkillya);
• - Description of the received input signal and change it to the next signal (the model looks like a transition);
• - Description of the formation of the output signal or the reaction of the dynamic system to the internal and external causes of the change in the stations (the model looks like the output function).

The arguments of the input and output signals of the system can be the hour, space coordinates, as well as the changes that are victorious in the transformations of Laplace, Fur'є and others.

In the simplest way, the system operator transforms the vector function X(t) into the vector function Y(t). Models of this type are called dynamic (timchas).

Dynamic models are subdivided to stationary ones, if the structure and power of the operator W(t) do not change from time to time, and to non-stationary ones.

The reaction of a stationary system to any signal to deposit in the interval of one hour between the moment of the cob of the input fouling and the given moment of the hour. The process of converting the input signals to lie in the wake of the input signals at the hour.

The reaction of a non-stationary system to fall like a flow hour, and a moment of stoppage of the input signal. In this case, with the sound of the input signal at the hour (without changing its form), the output signals do not only sound at the hour, but change the shape.

Dynamic models are divided into models of non-inertia and inertia (models of zapiznennyam) systems.

Inertia-free models are suitable for systems, in which the operator W sets the occurrence of input values ​​in input values ​​at the same time - y=W(X, t).

In inertial systems, the values ​​of the external parameters lie not only in the right, but also in the forward values ​​of the change

Y \u003d W (Z, xt, xt-1, ..., xt-k).

Inertial models are called memory models. The transformation operator can change the parameters, so it sounds unknown - Y=W(,Z,Х), de =(1,2,…,k) is the parameter vector.

The most important sign of the structure of the operator is the linearity of the number of non-linear input signals.

For linear systems, there is always a fair principle of superposition, which means that a linear combination of sufficient input signals should be set to the same linear combination of signals at the output of the system

Mathematical model with a variable linear operator can be written as Y=WХ.

Since Umov (2.1) does not win, the model is called non-linear.

The dynamic models are classified properly before the mathematical operations are victorious with the operator. It is possible to see: algebraic, functional (type of the integral of the fold), differential, sizable-differential models and other.

A one-world model is called such, as it can be an input signal, and a sound at the same time, scalar values.

Depending on the size of the parameter, the model is subdivided into one and the same rich parameter. Classification of models can be carried out also depending on the type of input and output signals.

Information

Features of space-hours

ZV'YAZKI POKAZNIKIV

BAGATOFACTORY DYNAMIC MODELS

Rich factor dynamic models will link the indicators space-hour vibrations, Yakі є impersonal data about the meaning of the sign of the totality of objects for a number of periods (moments) of the hour.

Free vibrating spaces formed by the path of the union of a few years (periods) of expanses of vibes, tobto. the totality of objects that lie down to the same periods of time. Vykoristovuyutsya at times of small vibirok, tobto. short history development of the object.

Dynamic Vibrations settle for help uniting dynamic rows of other objects in different trivalo prehistory, then. great vibes.

Classification of methods for molding vibrates is mental, tk. to deposit according to the method of modeling, according to the stability of the revealed regularities, according to the degree of uniformity of objects, the number of factors. For the most vipadkiv, the first way is hoped for.

Dynamic rows with a trivial history are looked at as rows, on the basis of which it is possible to build models of interrelationship of indicators in various objects to achieve high clarity.

Dynamic model link indications can be:

· Spacious, tobto. simulating the connection of indications for all objects that are seen at the singing moment (interval) hour;

· dynamіchnymi, scho buduyutsya for the succession of the implementation of one object for all periods (moments) of the hour;

· Spacious and dynamic, as they are formed on all objects for all periods (moments) of an hour.

Speaker Models showing groups for the following species:

1) one-dimensional models of dynamics: they are characterized as a model of the actual indicator of a given object;

2) rich models of the dynamics of one object: model a decal of the object's indicators;

3) rich models of the dynamics of the totality of objects : model a spate of indicators in the system of objects.

Apparently, the models are tied together for spacious extrapolation(for predicting the value of effective indicators of new objects for the values ​​of factor signs), dynamics models - for dynamic extrapolation(For forecasting fallow changes).

You can see the main task of choosing space-time information.

1. What is the point of a short history: the manifestation of open connections between showmen, tobto. development of the structure of links between objects of the improvement of the accuracy and reliability of the modeling of these regularities.

2. In times of history: an approximation of the patterns of change in indications with a method of explaining their behavior and predicting possible positions.